China's inflation at decade high

2008-03-11
[Source: cnn.com]

　　China's inflation rate jumped to a new decade high of 8.7 percent in February after severe winter storms disrupted the economy and worsened food shortages, the government said Tuesday.

　　Devastating snowstorms in China have worsened food shortages, setting back efforts to cool rising prices.

　　The increase was driven by a 23 percent jump in food prices, according to the National Statistics Bureau. It was a sharp jump from January's 7.1 percent rate and exceeded forecasts by outside economists.

　　The announcement increased the likelihood of interest rate hikes or other government steps to cool a surge in inflation that began in mid-2007. Beijing has raised interest rates repeatedly and tried to increase food supplies to cool price rises.

　　Analysts were forecasting a February inflation rate close to 8 percent.

　　Snowstorms that began Jan. 10 and lasted in February hammered China's south, wrecking crops, paralyzing shipping and forcing some steel mills and factories to shut down. Shortages of meat and fresh vegetables caused prices to soar in snow-hit areas.

　　Chinese leaders worry about the political impact in a society where families spend up to half their incomes on food. They have frozen prices of gasoline, electricity and other basic goods and ordered food processors to get approval for any price hikes.

　　Inflation has been limited mostly to food, but data reported earlier show that pressure for across-the-board price rises is growing amid a boom that saw China's economy expand by 11.4 percent last year.

　　The cost of basic oil products jumped 37.5 percent jump in February while that for steel products was up 29.6 percent, the statistics bureau said Monday. Food-related raw materials rose 11 percent.

Note：inflation rate：　　

　　通货膨胀率=(现期物价水平—基期物价水平)/基期物价水平

　　其中基期就是选定某年的物价水平作为一个参照，这样就可以把其他各期的物价水平通过与基期水平作一对比，从而衡量现今的通货膨胀水平。其实，上面所说的只是三种衡量通货膨胀水平方法之一的消费指数折算法，但它是最常用的，此外还有GDP折算法和生产指数折算法。

　　20世纪70年代后，随着浮动汇率取代了固定汇率，通货膨胀对汇率变动的影响变得更为重要了。通货膨胀意味着国内物价水平的上涨，当一个经济中的大多数商品和劳务的价格连续在一段时间内普遍上涨时，就称这个经济经历着通货膨胀。由于物价是一国商品价值的货币表现，通货膨胀也就意味着该国货币代表的价值量下降。在国内外商品市场相互紧密联系的情况下，一般地，通货膨胀和国内物价上涨，会引起出口商品的减少和进口商品的增加，从而对外汇市场上的供求关系发生影响，导致该国汇率波动。同时，一国货币对内价值的下降必定影响其对外价值，削弱该国货币在国际市场上的信用地位，人们会因通货膨胀而预期该国货币的汇率将趋于疲软，把手中持有该国货币转化为其他货币，从而导致汇价下跌。按照一价定律和购买力平价理论，当一国的通货膨胀率高于另一国的通货膨胀率时，则该国货币实际所代表的价值相对另一国货币在减少，该国货币汇率就会下降。反之，则会上升。

　　例如，20世纪90年代之前，日元和原西德马克汇率十分坚挺的一个重要原因，就在于这两个国家的通货膨胀率一直很低。而英国和意大利的通货膨胀率经常高于其他西方国家的平均水平，故这两国货币的汇率一下处于跌势。